Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92f8…6956 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$18 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%32W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$155
sports 39% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -15.3% -23.4% 45% 45% -12.5%
≤30d 71 -15.3% -23.4% 45% 45% -12.5%
≤90d 71 -15.3% -23.4% 45% 45% -12.5%
all 71 -15.3% -23.4% 45% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 45% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 42% -20.9%
15% -37.4% 38% -28.5%
20% -43.6% 35% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses32 / 39
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $157 $156 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $144 +$119 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$19 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$12 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$37 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$20 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 34m
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $160 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 19h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $144 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $16 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $12 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.