Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x92f6…3784 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,687 (-6%) realized −$1,687 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%74W / 63L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days+$487
14 days+$522
30 days−$1,918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$12
finance 22% −$1,601
sports 14% +$381
other 9% −$676
crypto 1% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +33.1% +20.4% 64% 59% +1.1%
≤30d 91 +22.4% +10.8% 62% 54% -21.9%
≤90d 97 +20.2% +8.8% 60% 53% -23.8%
all 137 +14.2% +3.4% 54% 47% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 47% -16.5%
10% -6.5% 42% -24.5%
15% -15.6% 36% -31.8%
20% -23.8% 31% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$93 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,687
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses74 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage413d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $97 +$2 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $151 +$19 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $152 −$69 -45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 −$36 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $181 +$21 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $64 +$19 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $177 +$34 +19%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $92 −$12 -13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $204 +$20 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$27 -44%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $145 +$43 +30%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$13 +16%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $122 +$97 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $116 +$59 +50%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $56 −$20 -36%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $66 −$65 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $142 +$84 +60%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $106 +$85 +80%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$45 +30%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $173 −$60 -35%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $73 −$63 -86%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $135 −$98 -73%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $286 −$151 -53%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$73 +238%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$53 +35%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $132 +$86 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $81 +$16 +19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 +$127 +414%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 +$29 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $28 +$37 +129%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 +$72 +206%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $139 +$106 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$17 -66%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $28 −$23 -80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$40 +102%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $34 +$17 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $9 +$18 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $99 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Under 95¢ $169 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $83 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $267 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $97 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $152 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $151 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $181 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $14 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $50 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $211 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $177 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 73¢ $80 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $82 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 71¢ $0 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 70¢ $136 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $111 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $87 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $93 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 30¢ $34 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 69¢ $188 41h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $0 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $93 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $81 44h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $145 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 410 history records