Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92f6…8a29 other 15 markets active 4d ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$348 (-26%) realized −$349 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$335
14 days−$335
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$291
sports 3% −$44
crypto 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.5% -30.8% 38% 38% -35.2%
≤30d 11 -44.4% -49.7% 27% 27% -36.3%
≤90d 11 -44.4% -49.7% 27% 27% -36.3%
all 11 -44.4% -49.7% 27% 27% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 27% -36.3%
10% -54.5% 27% -42.4%
15% -58.9% 27% -48.0%
20% -62.9% 18% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$87 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage10d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $353 +$148 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $121 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $502 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $252 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.18 · official $31.18 (match) · 28 history records