Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92ed…21dc crypto 1294 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (345 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$287 (-4%) realized −$279 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate51%514W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day345.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,216
7 days−$1,068
14 days−$1,082
30 days−$1,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$129
sports 7% +$126
other 1% +$14
weather 0% $0
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (345 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 906 -35.0% -41.2% 46% 4% -26.3%
≤30d 1017 -31.7% -38.2% 51% 3% -22.0%
≤90d 1017 -31.7% -38.2% 51% 3% -22.0%
all 1017 -31.7% -38.2% 51% 3% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover345.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 3% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -44.1% 3% -29.5%
15% -49.5% 3% -36.3%
20% -54.5% 3% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$279
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses514 / 503
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1017 / 1294
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day345.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1017 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 96¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+72%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 40¢ 46¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+23%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 45¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 44¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Over 58¢ 32¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-44%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 24¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 37¢ 20¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 49¢ 3¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $7 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $4 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $4 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $6 3h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $2 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $5 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $6 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $4 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $5 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 85¢ $8 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $3 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $4 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 68¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $7 6h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $7 8h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $5 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? SELL No 95¢ $10 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $9 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $4 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $6 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $6 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $6 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.65 · official $95.74 · 3500 history records