Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92ea…4264 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$17
politics 25% −$1
world 19% −$22
culture 8% $0
sports 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.0% -14.9% 0% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 29% 14% -16.8%
≤90d 13 +1.4% -8.3% 31% 15% -16.6%
all 13 +1.4% -8.3% 31% 15% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 15% -16.6%
10% -17.1% 8% -24.6%
15% -25.1% 8% -31.9%
20% -32.4% 8% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage148d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 82¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 28 $56 −$3 -5%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 28 $65 −$5 -7%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 28 $67 −$4 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $69 −$22 -32%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $137 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? May 05 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $46 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $81 1h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $55 1h
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $53 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $60 1h
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $63 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $65 12d
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $56 12d
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $67 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $70 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $131 12d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Sharks 53¢ $1 31d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Sharks 70¢ $1 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $70 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $137 31d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $1 31d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $1 31d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1 31d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $1 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $69 31d
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $3 31d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1 53d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 53d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 53d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 53d
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $2 121d
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $2 121d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? BUY 80k 90¢ $1 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.55 · official $238.54 (match) · 53 history records