Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x92ea…bdbd
crypto · 232 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$486 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$448 · open −$38
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses73 / 155
Open positions4
Markets (closed)228 / 232
History coverage143d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 4 History 228 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$39
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 33 vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Playoffs EYEBALLERS 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the US strike Iran next? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC København win on 2026-01-20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) SSC Napoli 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in January 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-20? No 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the US strike another country first? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 29? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $21 +$33 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 30? May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 29? May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 29? May 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on May 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 29? May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 28 $52 −$13 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 18 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 18 $51 −$15 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $45 +$19 +41%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 26 $30 +$13 +43%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Apr 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Khamenei seen in public by March 1? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 28 $5 −$4 -77%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Feb 28 $20 −$2 -8%
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $5 +$6 +113%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$10 +100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Feb 21 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 21 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 21 $9 $0 -4%
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-02-13? Feb 21 $5 +$6 +125%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-12? Feb 21 $5 +$7 +150%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 21 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 11 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 11 $14 −$3 -19%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 11 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 10 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 10 $21 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: 33 vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Emma Navarro vs Anna Kalinskaya Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Suns Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Alycia Parks vs Qinwen Zheng Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $2 +$45 +2258%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 10 $50 +$26 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$373
other 11% +$25
politics 5% +$5
sports 3% −$97
world 1% +$91
weather 1% −$43
finance 1% −$51
economics 1% −$42
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $25 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on May 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 29? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on May 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 29? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 15d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $39 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $23 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 15d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 15d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY Yes 8¢ $34 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +26.4% +14.4% 100% 100% +14.4%
≤30d 20 -40.6% -46.3% 30% 30% -20.7%
≤90d 22 -32.8% -39.2% 36% 36% -15.2%
all 228 -22.1% -29.5% 32% 27% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 27% -13.4%
10% -36.2% 21% -21.7%
15% -42.4% 17% -29.2%
20% -48.1% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.04 · official $13.04 (match) · 1541 history records