Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92ea…7820 crypto 576 markets active 15h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%188W / 388L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days+$15
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 17 +61.8% +46.4% 24% 24% +42.8%
≤90d 504 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 33% -11.3%
all 576 -5.0% -14.0% 33% 32% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 32% -13.9%
10% -22.3% 31% -22.1%
15% -29.8% 30% -29.6%
20% -36.7% 28% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses188 / 388
Open positions0
Markets (closed)576 / 576
History coverage100d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 576 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$23 +2298%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 08 $1 +$3 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 06 $1 +$3 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.48 · official $12.48 (match) · 1488 history records