Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x92e5…efee
world · 262 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$36,152 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,127 · open +$11,726
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$112,249
Realized+$25,127
Unrealized+$11,726
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses108 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions100
Markets (closed)194 / 262
Avg bet$1,951
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 100 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,163
7 days−$768
14 days−$25,443
30 days−$30,845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 79¢ 97¢ $26,188 $32,313 +$6,125 (+23%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $9,393 $13,380 +$3,987 (+42%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 60¢ 64¢ $7,629 $8,133 +$505 (+7%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 90¢ 94¢ $6,477 $6,752 +$275 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 69¢ 88¢ $4,216 $5,352 +$1,136 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 34¢ $3,897 $2,680 −$1,218 (-31%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $2,544 $2,628 +$84 (+3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,471 $2,514 +$42 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $2,066 $2,198 +$132 (+6%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 79¢ 98¢ $1,749 $2,175 +$426 (+24%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 75¢ 97¢ $1,679 $2,168 +$489 (+29%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 82¢ $1,713 $2,016 +$303 (+18%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $1,904 $1,893 −$11 (-1%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 43¢ 86¢ $745 $1,469 +$724 (+97%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 76¢ 90¢ $1,184 $1,392 +$208 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,347 $1,351 +$4 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $1,414 $1,341 −$73 (-5%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $1,243 $1,317 +$74 (+6%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,255 $1,311 +$56 (+4%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 63¢ 88¢ $919 $1,299 +$380 (+41%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 42¢ 62¢ $820 $1,221 +$400 (+49%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $1,042 $1,161 +$119 (+11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 27¢ 26¢ $1,211 $1,133 −$78 (-6%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $811 $1,094 +$283 (+35%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $771 $1,088 +$317 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $41,656 +$4,012 +10%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $1,393 −$1,393 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $1,456 −$1,456 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $94 +$128 +135%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,119 +$729 +65%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 09 $144 −$144 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $411 −$411 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 09 $1,149 −$59 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 09 $5,263 −$4,596 -87%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 09 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $267 −$267 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 09 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $4,828 +$690 +14%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $76 +$90 +119%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $94 +$106 +113%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $2,689 +$644 +24%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $24 +$28 +113%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $1,537 +$2,202 +143%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,682 +$6 +0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $222 +$889 +400%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 04 $702 +$936 +133%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $2,117 +$796 +38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22,898 −$161 -1%
Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026? Jun 03 $4 +$4 +106%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $991 +$120 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $583 +$527 +90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,906 +$538 +28%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $2,078 +$144 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,666 +$667 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $78 −$24 -31%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? Jun 01 $19 −$19 -100%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 01 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? Jun 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,647 +$578 +35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $18,014 +$1,890 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,440 +$946 +66%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $133 −$133 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 01 $3,592 −$2,760 -77%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 01 $533 −$533 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $170 −$170 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $1,220 −$330 -27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? Jun 01 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? Jun 01 $151 −$151 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$9,466
politics 32% +$28,442
other 6% +$3,718
crypto 5% +$1,322
sports 4% −$4,214
finance 1% −$548
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1,311
culture 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $35 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $133 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 22¢ $489 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -19.8% -27.5% 43% 35% -10.6%
≤30d 98 -12.2% -20.5% 53% 32% -20.7%
≤90d 194 +25.9% +13.9% 56% 36% -4.8%
all 194 +25.9% +13.9% 56% 36% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 36% -4.8%
10% +3.0% 29% -13.9%
15% ← realistic here -7.0% 25% -22.2%
20% -16.1% 22% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112,248.71 · official $112,248.42 (match) · 3500 history records