Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92e5…8174 other 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$38
sports 25% −$20
politics 8% −$10
culture 7% −$10
economics 7% −$7
crypto 4% −$4
world 4% −$7
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage137d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $343 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $444 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $769 −$2 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $627 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $200 −$2 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $136 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $337 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $937 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $246 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $286 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $741 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $586 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $860 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 3h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 4h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 6h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 9h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 10h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $4 14h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 15h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 17h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 19h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 20h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 25h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 26h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 28h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 32h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 34h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 35h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 40h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 42h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 43h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 45h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 46h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 47h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1426 history records