Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

92 0x92e4…613e crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$20 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Drawdown58%max

Avg bet$508per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$4

7 days+$2

14 days+$9

30 days+$9

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+20.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+7.0%	-3.2%	50%	50%	+32.0%
≤30d	5	+41.5%	+28.0%	60%	60%	+63.5%
≤90d	14	+1.6%	-8.1%	57%	43%	+16.5%
all	19	+33.6%	+20.9%	53%	42%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.9%	42%	-9.4%
10%	+9.3%	42%	-18.1%
15%	-1.3%	32%	-26.0%
20%	-10.9%	26%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +92% → late -19% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage

Net worth$152

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage139d

Avg bet$508

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown58%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	50¢	56¢	$75	$83	+$8 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	50¢	44¢	$75	$66	−$8 (-11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 15	$3	+$4	+114%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$1	−$1	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 08	$4	+$7	+168%
Suns vs. Thunder	Jun 01	$2	$0	-2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Jun 01	$1	$0	+27%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Apr 23	$1	−$1	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16?	Apr 09	$2	−$2	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 24?	Apr 09	$1	−$1	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 2?	Apr 09	$1	−$1	-100%
XRP Up or Down on April 1?	Apr 09	$1	$0	+5%
Solana Up or Down on March 30?	Apr 01	$2	$0	+6%
XRP Up or Down on March 27?	Mar 30	$2	+$1	+82%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26?	Mar 27	$2	+$1	+97%
XRP Up or Down on March 25?	Mar 26	$1	$0	+24%
Solana Up or Down on March 9?	Mar 16	$1	+$1	+50%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 21?	Feb 24	$5,352	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	Feb 21	$5,132	−$5	-0%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 6?	Feb 18	$2	+$9	+567%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Jan 27	$4	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$1	53m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$1	53m
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	47¢	$1	6d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$2	7d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$2	7d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$1	12d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$1	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$1	14d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	78¢	$1	40d
Suns vs. Thunder	BUY Suns	50¢	$2	47d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	BUY Nuggets	56¢	$1	53d
XRP Up or Down on April 1?	BUY Up	95¢	$1	75d
Solana Up or Down on March 30?	BUY Up	94¢	$2	77d
XRP Up or Down on March 27?	BUY Down	54¢	$2	80d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26?	BUY Down	50¢	$2	81d
XRP Up or Down on March 25?	BUY Up	80¢	$1	82d
Ethereum Up or Down on March 24?	BUY Down	27¢	$1	83d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16?	BUY Down	9¢	$2	91d
Solana Up or Down on March 9?	BUY Up	66¢	$1	98d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	SELL No	100¢	$5,127	114d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$5,132	117d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 6?	BUY Up	15¢	$2	129d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 2?	BUY Down	69¢	$1	133d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	SELL No	2¢	$0	138d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$4	138d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.18 · official $152.18 (match) · 111 history records