Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92e3…eb51 sports 601 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$150 (-0%) realized −$146 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate74%438W / 156L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$114
14 days−$295
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$104
crypto 5% +$6
tech 4% +$6
sports 4% −$84
politics 1% $0
culture 1% −$6
weather 1% +$4
world 0% −$49
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 46% -13.8%
≤30d 166 -12.8% -21.1% 42% 28% -13.5%
≤90d 281 -6.2% -15.1% 65% 19% -10.6%
all 594 -2.7% -12.0% 74% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 9% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 6% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses438 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions7
Markets (closed)594 / 601
History coverage191d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Over 69¢ 67¢ $49 $47 −$1 (-3%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 62¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $49 −$1 -3%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $24 −$16 -64%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $32 +$11 +33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$27 -52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$35 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$57 +114%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $68 −$9 -14%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$19 +65%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $42 +$88 +208%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 −$8 -16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $50 −$3 -6%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $6 −$1 -9%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $14 −$1 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $38 −$3 -7%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $60 −$27 -46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 +$2 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $46 +$49 +106%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $15 −$10 -71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $15 −$11 -77%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$1 -3%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$14 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $34 37m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $49 48m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $28 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $49 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $49 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $49 1h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 54¢ $48 7h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle SELL Elias Ymer 18¢ $9 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $42 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $32 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $48 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 54¢ $49 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 49¢ $24 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $3 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $48 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 17h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 53¢ $34 17h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $34 17h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ $24 17h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 69¢ $33 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $17 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $3 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $50 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $15 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $6 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.73 · official $299.73 (match) · 1565 history records