Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92de…3368 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 24% $0
politics 7% −$2
tech 7% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.5% -12.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 0% -9.4%
all 30 -8.8% -17.5% 37% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -10.1%
10% -25.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage449d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 71¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $24 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $25 $0 -1%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -85%
Another Trump x Putin talk in March? Mar 29 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 29 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $2 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $2 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $4 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $27 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $37 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $26 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $15 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $11 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $49 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records