Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x92de…30b4
crypto · 87 markets active 0h ago
6.0score
+$333 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$345 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized+$345
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 39
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage41d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$55
14 days+$209
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Down 46¢ 72¢ $19 $30 +$11 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? Down 53¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? Down 32¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $51 −$6 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$8 -42%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $45 +$14 +31%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$16 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $110 −$31 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$15 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $109 +$16 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$8 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $53 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$24 +163%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $191 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $99 +$92 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $145 +$38 +26%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 08 $104 −$104 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $99 −$24 -24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 07 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $478 +$228 +48%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $612 −$131 -22%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $611 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $548 +$64 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $518 +$29 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $404 +$114 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $383 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $354 +$28 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $321 +$33 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $300 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $89 +$16 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $37 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $49 +$39 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $98 −$98 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $298 +$50 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $97 −$94 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 30 $54 +$9 +16%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw? May 30 $199 −$67 -34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $185 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET May 29 $35 +$28 +79%
Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Remy Bertola May 29 $118 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5AM ET May 29 $49 −$9 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET May 29 $39 +$39 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $49 +$40 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET May 29 $48 −$47 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $89 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET May 29 $51 +$39 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 28 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $33 −$32 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$221
sports 21% −$92
world 9% +$294
finance 4% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $45 48m
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 24¢ $45 52m
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 26¢ $51 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 92¢ $59 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 69¢ $45 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 99¢ $45 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 62¢ $29 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $29 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $49 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 54¢ $79 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 71¢ $110 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $125 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $109 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $109 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 91¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $98 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $15 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $194 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $191 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.8% -18.4% 43% 33% -13.0%
≤30d 78 -9.1% -17.7% 54% 40% -5.4%
≤90d 86 -7.4% -16.3% 55% 41% -5.7%
all 86 -7.4% -16.3% 55% 41% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -5.7%
10% -24.3% 31% -14.7%
15% -31.6% 26% -23.0%
20% -38.3% 22% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.38 · official $30.38 (match) · 197 history records