Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92d8…9e82 other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$180
sports 44% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 38% -9.4%
≤30d 55 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 35% -12.5%
≤90d 55 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 35% -12.5%
all 55 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 35% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 35% -12.5%
10% -33.9% 29% -20.9%
15% -40.3% 20% -28.5%
20% -46.2% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage20d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $202 +$9 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$12 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $162 +$19 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$28 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $253 +$73 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $77 −$39 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $143 −$45 -32%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$57 +112%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $115 +$97 +84%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $168 −$40 -24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$95 -93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$26 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $103 −$52 -50%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -4%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $204 +$78 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $192 −$11 -6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $57 +$24 +41%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$4 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $51 +$10 +20%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $81 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $56 −$10 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $43 +$57 +132%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +234%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $59 +$42 +72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$7 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -10%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 04 $6 +$4 +72%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $72 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $31 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $202 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 96¢ $134 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $78 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $162 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $81 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $172 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $39 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 81¢ $49 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $41 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 46¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $98 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.39 · official $200.39 (match) · 170 history records