Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92d2…20d3 other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 24% −$7
politics 6% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.0% -14.9% 18% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 -2.9% -12.2% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -2.9% -12.2% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 71 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.3%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage462d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $67 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 25 $1 −$1 -38%
Will 'Turbo Granny' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 24 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 07 $5 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p May 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $8 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $36 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $23 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records