Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x92d0…269e
world · 290 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$18,265 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16,638 · open +$781
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,325
Realized+$16,638
Unrealized+$781
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses145 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions13
Markets (closed)277 / 290
History coverage109d
Avg bet$861
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 13 History 277 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$860
7 days−$617
14 days−$2,725
30 days+$2,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 57¢ 74¢ $1,331 $1,742 +$411 (+31%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 61¢ 67¢ $904 $987 +$83 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $845 $980 +$135 (+16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Yes 52¢ 68¢ $656 $844 +$188 (+29%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 86¢ $486 $655 +$168 (+35%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $347 $481 +$134 (+39%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 46¢ $564 $455 −$109 (-19%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 45¢ 39¢ $500 $435 −$65 (-13%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 39¢ 64¢ $195 $318 +$122 (+63%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $445 $170 −$275 (-62%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 68¢ $88 $103 +$16 (+18%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $85 −$25 (-23%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $74 $70 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $1,957 +$4 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $78 −$8 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $4,674 −$996 -21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $551 +$60 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,755 −$92 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,655 −$152 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $858 −$21 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,838 −$493 -17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $272 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,811 +$230 +13%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $97 −$75 -77%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$19 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,286 −$369 -29%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $417 +$29 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $5,826 +$791 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $142 +$21 +15%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $283 −$7 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $313 −$9 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $589 +$84 +14%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $347 +$97 +28%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $170 −$124 -73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $976 +$128 +13%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $45 +$18 +39%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $512 −$13 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $17 −$13 -76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $59 +$18 +30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $152 +$48 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $320 −$10 -3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $776 −$71 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $151 +$50 +33%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $191 −$78 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $72 −$24 -34%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $1,163 +$410 +35%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $34 −$13 -40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$6 -58%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $210 −$64 -30%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $95 −$13 -14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $52 −$15 -28%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $66 +$56 +85%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $72 +$111 +154%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $46 +$57 +122%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $63 −$18 -29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $402 −$7 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $275 −$110 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $18 −$9 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 05 $169 −$89 -53%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $1,824 +$206 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,832 −$1,603 -57%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $586 +$192 +33%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $339 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 85% +$11,885
other 8% +$6,937
politics 4% +$1,515
economics 1% −$3,331
tech 1% +$345
sports 0% +$27
finance 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 30¢ $101 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 34¢ $114 29m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 65¢ $404 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 65¢ $1 32m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 65¢ $0 33m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 65¢ $12 33m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 5¢ $4 50m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 5¢ $35 50m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 4¢ $30 51m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 4¢ $1 52m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 49¢ $98 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 62¢ $226 58m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $203 58m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 5¢ $28 1h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 5¢ $50 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $36 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $77 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $170 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $154 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 37¢ $74 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 47¢ $113 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 47¢ $26 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $100 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $331 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 48¢ $97 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $44 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $114 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $37 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $143 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 52¢ $147 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -2.2% -11.5% 40% 33% -11.2%
≤30d 99 +11.0% +0.4% 47% 40% -7.6%
≤90d 217 +9.8% -0.7% 52% 43% -4.7%
all 277 +12.0% +1.3% 52% 43% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 43% -3.1%
10% -8.4% 31% -12.4%
15% ← realistic here -17.2% 22% -20.9%
20% -25.3% 17% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,325.14 · official $7,325.14 (match) · 3500 history records