Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x92cc…a69c world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% $0
other 27% +$16
politics 18% +$3
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 13 +3.2% -6.6% 46% 23% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +3.2% -6.6% 46% 23% -9.3%
all 31 +13.9% +3.1% 45% 23% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 23% -6.5%
10% -6.8% 13% -15.4%
15% -15.8% 10% -23.6%
20% -24.0% 3% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage301d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $59 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $49 +$6 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $4 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $25 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $34 −$9 -25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $3 +$1 +23%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $5 +$15 +335%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Dem Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $6 +$3 +40%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 38h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $59 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $59 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $55 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $25 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $19 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $48 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $3 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $23 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $34 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $22 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $8 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.41 · official $48.41 (match) · 97 history records