Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x92c9…67c6 other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,992 (-24%) realized −$2,192 · open +$200
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$4,181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$447
14 days+$447
30 days+$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$529
finance 26% −$2,107
world 4% −$256
crypto 4% −$166
politics 4% +$1
culture 3% +$207
sports 2% −$119
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +83.3% +65.8% 43% 43% +32.1%
≤30d 14 +83.3% +65.8% 43% 43% +32.1%
≤90d 21 +62.4% +47.0% 52% 52% +17.2%
all 41 +6.7% -3.4% 39% 37% -55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 37% -55.1%
10% -12.7% 34% -59.4%
15% -21.1% 32% -63.3%
20% -28.8% 24% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$124 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$4,181
Realized−$2,192
Unrealized+$200
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)41 / 71
History coverage107d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,679 $1,847 +$168 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $745 $612 −$132 (-18%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 34¢ 63¢ $250 $457 +$207 (+83%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $299 $216 −$83 (-28%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 82¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $60 $85 +$25 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $40 $84 +$44 (+109%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $70 $64 −$6 (-9%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $94 $62 −$32 (-34%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $58 −$32 (-35%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+85%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will "Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250? Yes 88¢ 76¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $15 +$4 (+41%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 77¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? No 76¢ 87¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 83¢ 85¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250? Yes 90¢ 55¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $31 +$200 +650%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $236 +$123 +52%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 +$344 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? Apr 09 $9 +$6 +64%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 08 $179 −$119 -67%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Apr 01 $9 +$5 +54%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 31 $20 −$5 -24%
Will "Project Hail Mary" make it into the IMDb Top 250? Mar 22 $72 +$38 +52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 16 $1,541 −$1,541 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? Mar 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will turnout in the 2026 Danish general elections be between 85% and 9 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 13 $110 −$90 -82%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 10 $230 −$230 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Mar 07 $100 −$65 -65%
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? Mar 07 $100 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$16 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 04 $50 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 04 $42 +$37 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 7h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 28h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $226 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $307 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $615 34d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 34d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 34d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 34d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 34d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $143 35d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $57 35d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 35d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $105 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,181.48 · official $4,181.49 (match) · 258 history records