Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92c7…c136 other 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,125 (-23%) realized −$7,823 · open −$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%39W / 283L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day64.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$9,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,435
7 days−$5,435
14 days−$5,435
30 days−$5,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$304
world 28% +$125
other 23% +$132
economics 15% −$37
tech 3% −$133
finance 1% −$27
sports 0% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 +2.6% -7.2% 11% 9% -90.7%
≤30d 311 +2.6% -7.2% 11% 9% -71.6%
≤90d 322 +7.4% -2.8% 12% 10% -65.9%
all 322 +7.4% -2.8% 12% 10% -65.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 10% -65.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 10% -69.2%
15% -20.6% 9% -72.2%
20% -28.4% 8% -74.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -93% → late +108% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$9,013
Realized−$7,823
Unrealized−$302
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses39 / 283
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions111
Markets (closed)322 / 83
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$419
Trades / day64.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 111 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 28¢ 44¢ $1,175 $1,868 +$693 (+59%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $315 $307 −$8 (-3%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $211 $202 −$8 (-4%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? No 79¢ 76¢ $198 $192 −$6 (-3%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $200 $183 −$17 (-8%)
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? No 66¢ 59¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $187 $151 −$37 (-20%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? No 75¢ 76¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 52¢ $202 $143 −$59 (-29%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $146 $141 −$5 (-3%)
Epstein storage units raided in 2026? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $196 $140 −$56 (-28%)
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $193 $138 −$55 (-29%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 90¢ 79¢ $150 $131 −$19 (-13%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $118 $118 +$1 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $197 $118 −$79 (-40%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $165 $108 −$56 (-34%)
Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $200 $106 −$94 (-47%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 64¢ 71¢ $93 $103 +$10 (+11%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $92 $99 +$6 (+7%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 64¢ 30¢ $202 $95 −$107 (-53%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $180 $93 −$87 (-48%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $188 $90 −$98 (-52%)
Epstein storage units raided in 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+3%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 74¢ 86¢ $75 $87 +$12 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 310 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 20% and Jun 17 $4 +$16 +373%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on April 20? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 35% and Jun 17 $16 −$9 -60%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2 Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +324%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 19? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +902%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 0 1. FSV Mainz 05? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$16 +2766%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by 40% or more? Jun 17 $0 $0 +100%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 15%? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 17 $1 −$7 -694%
Will DeWayne Davis win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jazz Hampton win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Dorothy Semu win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
China-Vietnam trade deal before June? Jun 17 $48 −$96 -200%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Dillon Gabriel start Week 1 for the Browns? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2025? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will less than 12 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane se Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 17 $3 +$27 +982%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 17 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 17 $1 +$13 +2179%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs before June? Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
ETH flipped in 2025? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
BOA launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mitch McConnell retire before July? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Luis Arce win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 10-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends taxes on tips in 2025? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -92%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in June? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Trump baby bonus before July? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025? Jun 17 $0 $0 -76%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 30%? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 17 $38 −$41 -107%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Michael Flynn be next National Security Advisor? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 76¢ $10 20m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 55m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 76¢ $50 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after t BUY No 94¢ $19 2h
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after t BUY No 94¢ $19 2h
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after t SELL No 94¢ $13 2h
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after t SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after t SELL No 94¢ $8 2h
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after t SELL No 94¢ $8 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $66 3h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $66 3h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $55 3h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 3h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $64 3h
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $3 4h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 7h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the SELL No 7¢ $1 9h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the SELL No 7¢ $2 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $18 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $37 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 10h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the BUY No 7¢ $2 11h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the BUY No 7¢ $5 11h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the BUY No 8¢ $20 11h
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,012.54 · official $9,005.30 (match) · 3500 history records