Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92c6…6060 crypto 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,893 (-18%) realized −$1,886 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%121W / 66L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2,008
other 11% −$7
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 187 +0.2% -9.4% 65% 59% -28.8%
all 187 +0.2% -9.4% 65% 59% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 59% -28.8%
10% -18.0% 54% -35.6%
15% -25.9% 31% -41.8%
20% -33.2% 17% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$48 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,042
Realized−$1,886
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses121 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)187 / 201
History coverage67d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? No 93¢ 92¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 81¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? No 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? No 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? No 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? No 84¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 17 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 17 $8 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 17 $11 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 17 $9 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 17 $11 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 17 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 17 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 10m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 82¢ $50 21m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $50 21m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 92¢ $50 33m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $100 46m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $50 47m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $50 48m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $50 58m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 87¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 91¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 90¢ $49 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 91¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 84¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $50 3h
Utah vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,041.51 · official $1,041.49 (match) · 1367 history records