Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x92be…3475 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,071 (+24%) realized +$2,090 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$1,064per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$940
other 47% +$34
crypto 1% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.8% +1.1% 71% 71% +2.4%
≤30d 7 +11.8% +1.1% 71% 71% +2.4%
≤90d 7 +11.8% +1.1% 71% 71% +2.4%
all 7 +11.8% +1.1% 71% 71% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 71% +2.4%
10% -8.5% 71% -7.4%
15% -17.4% 71% -16.3%
20% -25.5% 29% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$580 vs −$916 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized+$2,090
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,064
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $382 $363 −$19 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $778 −$764 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $482 +$196 +41%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3,011 +$1,109 +37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,089 −$1,068 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $652 +$595 +91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,998 +$926 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 +$74 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $390 24m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $676 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $678 5h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $482 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,034 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $442 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $327 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,087 34h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $1,086 34h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,155 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,089 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,247 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $652 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,924 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $171 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $33 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $77 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,827 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.80 · official $362.80 (match) · 20 history records