Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92b9…eb9d sports 1190 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,303 (-15%) realized −$1,299 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%767W / 364L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$101
sports 29% +$40
crypto 22% −$85
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +11.8% +1.1% 40% 38% -10.1%
≤30d 304 -0.9% -10.3% 59% 40% -10.7%
≤90d 1131 -3.8% -13.0% 68% 41% -11.2%
all 1131 -3.8% -13.0% 68% 41% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 41% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 28% -19.7%
15% -28.9% 19% -27.4%
20% -35.9% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized−$1,299
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses767 / 364
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions169
Markets (closed)1131 / 1190
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 169 History 1131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 95¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+111%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Miami Heretics finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 92¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +36%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$33 +650%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$5 +30%
ITF Ljubljana: Gregor Hausberger vs Oleksii Krutykh Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $1 $0 +20%
ITF Ljubljana: Jost Pecovnik vs Jan Kupcic Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 04 $1 $0 +29%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 38m
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 7h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 7h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 7h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $1 7h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 7h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 15h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 15h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 15h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 15h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 28h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 28h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.91 · official $456.93 (match) · 3500 history records