Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92b5…2def sports 1112 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$682 (-4%) realized −$631 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%398W / 703L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$257est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,393
7 days−$663
14 days−$424
30 days−$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,489
other 14% +$43
crypto 4% +$381
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -17.0% -24.9% 34% 34% -26.7%
≤30d 767 -3.2% -12.4% 37% 36% -15.4%
≤90d 1101 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 36% -15.1%
all 1101 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 36% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 36% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 35% -23.2%
15% -25.8% 34% -30.7%
20% -33.0% 31% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$631
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses398 / 703
Est. fees paid−$257
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1101 / 1112
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-90%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Inner Circle 20¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage AGELITE 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Esport Academy Copenhagen 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $23 +$24 +101%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$19 +122%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$17 +54%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $27 +$6 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $21 +$58 +272%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 $0 -3%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $13 +$1 +11%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $47 +$23 +49%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -40%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $25 −$3 -12%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $47 28m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 49¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 30¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 15¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 13¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 100¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 20¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 45¢ $15 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY AGELITE 37¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 35¢ $18 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $6 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $12 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 20¢ $4 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 28¢ $17 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 99¢ $79 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 26¢ $21 15h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 43¢ $9 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 15h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 16h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 21¢ $5 16h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 66¢ $15 16h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co BUY 29¢ $10 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 36¢ $11 16h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 17¢ $4 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $12 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.28 · official $1.28 (match) · 3500 history records