Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92b4…31e4 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$185 (+12%) realized +$187 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day58.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$118
other 20% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -13.1% -21.3% 61% 52% -0.7%
≤30d 23 -13.1% -21.3% 61% 52% -0.7%
≤90d 23 -13.1% -21.3% 61% 52% -0.7%
all 23 -13.1% -21.3% 61% 52% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 52% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 35% -10.2%
15% -35.7% 17% -18.9%
20% -42.0% 9% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $179 +$98 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $229 +$35 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$8 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $277 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $128 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.79 · official $297.79 (match) · 66 history records