Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92ab…bef6 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$186 (-2%) realized −$185 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%30W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$8
other 45% −$220
finance 2% +$5
sports 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.1% -16.0% 50% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 6 -29.4% -36.1% 50% 17% -30.9%
≤90d 34 -4.7% -13.8% 88% 6% -11.6%
all 34 -4.7% -13.8% 88% 6% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 6% -11.6%
10% -22.1% 3% -20.0%
15% -29.6% 3% -27.8%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$59 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses30 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage77d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $108 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $126 −$18 -14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $290 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 21? May 22 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $289 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $285 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $281 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $278 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $278 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $277 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $274 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 11 $274 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $274 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 08 $274 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $273 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $273 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $273 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 03 $272 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $272 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $311 −$39 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $309 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $307 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? Apr 18 $307 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $306 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 15 $148 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 13? Apr 13 $150 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $108 23h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $70 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $126 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 72¢ $50 17d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $290 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $289 40d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $285 41d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $281 42d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $278 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $278 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $277 46d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $274 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $274 50d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $274 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $274 53d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $273 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $273 55d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $140 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.77 · official $107.77 (match) · 77 history records