Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

92 0x92ab…fc95 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$93 (+15%) realized +$76 · open +$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-22.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-13.8%	-22.0%	44%	44%	+1.8%
≤30d	18	-13.8%	-22.0%	44%	44%	+1.8%
≤90d	18	-13.8%	-22.0%	44%	44%	+1.8%
all	18	-13.8%	-22.0%	44%	44%	+1.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.0%	44%	+1.8%
10%	-29.4%	44%	-8.0%
15%	-36.3%	33%	-16.9%
20%	-42.5%	22%	-25.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -32% → late +5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$11 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$97

Realized+$76

Unrealized+$17

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage5d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	60¢	80¢	$50	$67	+$17 (+34%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$42	+$24	+57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$104	+$37	+36%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$11	−$10	-93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$42	−$20	-48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$42	+$26	+63%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$31	+$31	+99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$52	+$16	+30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$21	−$7	-36%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$31	−$20	-65%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$73	+$23	+32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$6	-52%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 15	$5	−$4	-85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$10	−$6	-56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$21	+$10	+48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$9	+88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$21	−$14	-66%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$31	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$52	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$42	5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	71¢	$104	28h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	SELL Czechia	2¢	$1	28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	30¢	$22	28h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	BUY Czechia	27¢	$11	31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$42	31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$42	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$31	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	74¢	$52	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	34¢	$13	2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	21¢	$11	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$21	2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	54¢	$31	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	20¢	$5	4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	72¢	$52	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$27	4d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	SELL Egypt	2¢	$1	4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$21	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	24¢	$5	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$10	4d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	12¢	$5	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	65¢	$21	4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	57¢	$10	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	21¢	$7	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	56¢	$21	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.76 · official $96.76 (match) · 40 history records