Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92ab…4dd5 world 28 markets active 9h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-11%) realized −$8 · open −$82
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$70
other 21% −$50
politics 9% +$3
sports 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 38% -19.3%
≤30d 8 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 38% -19.3%
≤90d 8 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 38% -19.3%
all 8 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 38% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 38% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 25% -27.0%
15% -30.8% 12% -34.1%
20% -37.6% 12% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)8 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+24%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 81¢ 78¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $45 $28 −$17 (-38%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-35%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 18¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+110%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 11¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-47%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 84¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No 64¢ 64¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $11 $14 +$2 (+22%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 59¢ 54¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No $15 $0 −$15 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 13¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$22 +145%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $60 +$20 +33%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $77 −$29 -38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 51¢ $5 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 51¢ $9 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 51¢ $0 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 12h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 65¢ $14 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 65¢ $0 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 69¢ $0 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 69¢ $0 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 52¢ $15 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 67¢ $15 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 33h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 37h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 37h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 37h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 37h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 41h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 41h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 42h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $15 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $15 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.34 · official $374.87 (match) · 97 history records