Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92aa…0341 crypto 953 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,043 (-7%) realized −$1,992 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%478W / 867L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,712
other 6% +$43
politics 6% −$54
world 6% −$113
economics 1% −$15
finance 0% +$7
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 -76.1% -78.4% 7% 1% -78.3%
≤30d 521 -66.0% -69.3% 11% 4% -75.2%
≤90d 1345 -27.3% -34.2% 36% 33% -41.6%
all 1345 -27.3% -34.2% 36% 33% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 33% -41.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 32% -47.2%
15% -46.2% 32% -52.3%
20% -51.5% 32% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$36 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$1,992
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses478 / 867
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1345 / 953
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $82 $85 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 61¢ 14¢ $31 $7 −$24 (-78%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 83¢ 77¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 62¢ 26¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes 56¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? Yes 57¢ 27¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin above 75,000 on April 20, 1AM ET? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-10.5) Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 28? Jun 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23? Jun 27 $178 −$178 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $162 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $165 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $33 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $33 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 31¢ $3 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 22h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 22h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 69¢ $34 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 71¢ $36 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $33 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 26h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 62¢ $30 26h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $31 26h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 71¢ $16 27h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 71¢ $16 27h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 37¢ $18 27h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 38¢ $19 27h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 71¢ $35 28h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 72¢ $36 28h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 27¢ $5 28h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 27¢ $5 28h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 27¢ $4 28h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 27¢ $4 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $11 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $12 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $33 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.33 · official $140.03 (match) · 3500 history records