Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92aa…41f1 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$2
other 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 3% −$4
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 15 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 28 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $44 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 −$1 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $33 +$3 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 21 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 18? Mar 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $2 $0 -24%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 14 $11 −$4 -36%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 13 $38 +$1 +2%
2025 February hottest on record? Mar 12 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $29 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $11 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $40 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $40 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $35 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $36 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $13 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $24 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $36 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $35 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $35 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $3 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $4 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $4 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $18 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $8 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $7 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $33 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $11 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $13 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records