Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x92a6…ceba other 52 markets active 3d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$2
world 23% +$4
politics 16% +$4
sports 5% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.7% +1.0% 60% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 7 +8.2% -2.1% 43% 14% -8.3%
≤90d 7 +8.2% -2.1% 43% 14% -8.3%
all 52 +1.5% -8.2% 48% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 4% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage458d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +58%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $83 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 15 $1 $0 -36%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 11 $18 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential el Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%? Jun 01 $17 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 30 $2 $0 +3%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on May 8? May 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $13 +$4 +27%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $14 $0 +4%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $23 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $23 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $46 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 92d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $69 92d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $83 92d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $83 94d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $83 94d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $2 354d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records