Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x92a6…8b84
politics · 594 markets active 4h ago
2.5score
+$77,247 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$76,834 · open +$413
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,169
Realized+$76,834
Unrealized+$413
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses578 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$331
Open positions3
Markets (closed)592 / 594
History coverage70d
Avg bet$8,319
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 592 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,173
7 days+$1,814
14 days+$5,834
30 days+$12,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 78¢ 78¢ $7,827 $7,827 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $2,922 $3,331 +$409 (+14%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 69¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$3 (+45%)
Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28? Jun 12 $164 −$164 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $1,329 +$95 +7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1,205 +$2 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $3,034 +$29 +1%
Will "Lorde" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $1,029 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $149,731 +$1,199 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $442 +$10 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $6,271 −$130 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $6,274 +$72 +1%
Will RH Q1 revenue be above $800M? Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $249 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $5,875 +$6 +0%
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $3,197 +$3 +0%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $191 +$9 +4%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $3,046 +$3 +0%
Will Trump announce Mike Waltz as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $3,645 +$4 +0%
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $4,096 +$4 +0%
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $3,796 +$4 +0%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $1,848 +$2 +0%
Will Trump announce Kash Patel as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $3,106 +$3 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? Jun 11 $1,054 +$1 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Jun 11 $1,519 +$1 +0%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Jun 11 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $3,389 +$3 +0%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $2,219 +$2 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Jeyson Lopez advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Prim Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fiona Ma advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will Josh Fryday advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Prima Jun 10 $265 +$1 +0%
Will Janelle Kellman advance from the California Lieutenant Governor P Jun 10 $406 +$1 +0%
Will Ebie Lynch advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primar Jun 10 $697 +$1 +0%
Will David Collenberg advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Jun 10 $776 +$1 +0%
Will Oliver Ma advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary Jun 10 $798 +$1 +0%
Will David Fennell advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pri Jun 10 $888 +$1 +0%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 10 $1,064 +$1 +0%
Will Michael Tubbs advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pri Jun 10 $1,076 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,204 +$1 +0%
Will Sean Collinson advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pr Jun 10 $1,281 +$1 +0%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 10 $1,756 +$2 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $5,265 +$5 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 10 $4,077 +$4 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $50,858 +$51 +0%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $729 +$8 +1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $1,962 +$4 +0%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $1,662 +$33 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $3,061 +$119 +4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $212,703 +$270 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 08 $240 +$12 +5%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 07 $1,450 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% +$61,224
politics 39% +$4,521
other 11% +$3,893
sports 6% +$7,082
tech 1% +$159
economics 1% +$240
crypto 0% +$318
culture 0% −$25
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,205 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,034 4h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $271 4h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,058 4h
Will "Lorde" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? BUY No 100¢ $140 7h
Will "Lorde" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? BUY No 100¢ $889 7h
Will RH Q1 revenue be above $800M? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 19h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $7,827 19h
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I BUY No 96¢ $191 19h
Will Trump announce Mike Waltz as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 100¢ $3,645 20h
Will Trump announce Kash Patel as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 100¢ $3,106 20h
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 100¢ $5,875 20h
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel BUY No 100¢ $249 20h
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In BUY No 100¢ $1,848 20h
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In BUY No 100¢ $3,197 20h
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I BUY No 100¢ $3,796 20h
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 100¢ $4,096 20h
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel BUY No 100¢ $49 20h
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In BUY No 100¢ $3,046 20h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? BUY No 99¢ $5 23h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 100¢ $9,990 23h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? BUY No 100¢ $2,214 23h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,389 23h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,271 26h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,004 26h
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 26h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $489 45h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $489 45h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $978 45h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $967 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 284 +1.0% -8.6% 97% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 592 +1.8% -7.9% 98% 4% -8.1%
all 592 +1.8% -7.9% 98% 4% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 4% -8.1%
10% -16.7% 2% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 2% -24.9%
20% -32.1% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,169.19 · official $11,169.19 (match) · 3500 history records