Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92a0…6562 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$151 (-4%) realized −$165 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate61%44W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days−$112
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$166
world 33% −$56
crypto 14% −$11
sports 12% −$129
tech 3% −$55
politics 2% −$56
finance 1% +$19
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 33% -15.1%
≤30d 42 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 33% -15.1%
≤90d 44 -31.7% -38.2% 41% 32% -17.8%
all 72 -15.3% -23.4% 61% 31% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 31% -13.2%
10% -30.7% 22% -21.5%
15% -37.4% 17% -29.1%
20% -43.6% 12% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses44 / 28
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage166d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 24¢ $250 $259 +$9 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+30%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$27 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $126 +$54 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $126 +$58 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $147 +$137 +93%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $145 −$120 -83%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $24 +$13 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$12 +165%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $82 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$23 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$26 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? May 09 $40 −$40 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 30 $20 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $20 +$3 +14%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jan 30 $10 $0 +5%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 22¢ $205 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 26¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $24 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $86 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 20¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.42 · official $354.42 (match) · 220 history records