Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x929e…6a87 sports 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 384d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,879 (+3%) realized +$1,878 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate68%195W / 93L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$289
14 days+$528
30 days+$758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$1,715
other 5% +$229
politics 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$10
world 0% +$48
economics 0% −$27
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +8.9% -1.4% 72% 52% -6.3%
≤30d 118 +2.9% -6.9% 75% 39% -6.2%
≤90d 205 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 31% -6.2%
all 288 -4.9% -14.0% 68% 28% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 28% -6.9%
10% -22.2% 15% -15.8%
15% -29.7% 9% -24.0%
20% -36.6% 6% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$23 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

384d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$1,878
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses195 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions3
Markets (closed)288 / 296
History coverage384d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 92¢ $83 $93 +$10 (+11%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $83 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 78¢ $86 $78 −$9 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 −$3 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U Jun 20 $31 +$12 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $81 +$37 +46%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$8 +16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$9 +44%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs Jun 18 $122 +$51 +42%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $451 +$67 +15%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $82 +$19 +23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $34 −$33 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 +$7 +31%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Jun 18 $102 +$1 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$10 +510%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $593 +$71 +12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 −$97 -95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U Jun 18 $92 +$23 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $91 −$70 -77%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $552 +$43 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $35 −$34 -96%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $88 +$13 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $76 +$25 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $77 +$24 +31%
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$23 +73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $954 +$102 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $882 +$73 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $667 +$215 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $302 −$301 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 −$77 -39%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $723 +$61 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $87 −$59 -68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $91 +$11 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $35 +$10 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $89 +$12 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $903 +$66 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $83 −$50 -60%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $90 +$8 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $91 +$10 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $88 +$12 +13%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $202 +$19 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 +$8 +27%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $300 +$6 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $91 −$21 -23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $202 +$17 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $31 +$12 +38%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $77 +$4 +5%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $84 +$17 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $84 22m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $84 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL 68¢ $77 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY 70¢ $81 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U BUY 72¢ $31 20h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $51 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY 68¢ $81 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 69¢ $21 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $451 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $34 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $28 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $22 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $82 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY 7¢ $11 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. SELL 50¢ $103 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs BUY 70¢ $122 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. BUY 48¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 1¢ $5 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 16¢ $2 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $593 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $21 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $91 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $552 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $35 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $87 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 79¢ $92 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.13 · official $252.10 (match) · 1056 history records