Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x929e…90cd sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-41%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$14
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$22
other 26% +$2
crypto 9% −$9
world 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +54.1% +39.4% 67% 67% +47.9%
≤30d 7 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 43% -22.1%
≤90d 25 -6.5% -15.4% 28% 28% -37.0%
all 25 -6.5% -15.4% 28% 28% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 28% -37.0%
10% -23.5% 24% -43.1%
15% -30.9% 20% -48.6%
20% -37.7% 20% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage52d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$16 +153%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 +$6 +109%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Gladiators Trier May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Tunis: Federico Cina vs Inaki Montes May 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1 +$11 +1116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 01 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 47¢ $5 30h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire BUY 21¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-1 BUY 22¢ $7 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $8 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $17 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 12d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 34d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Gladiators Trier BUY Gladiators Trier $2 35d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 39d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Colorado Rockies 14¢ $1 39d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 40¢ $1 39d
Tunis: Federico Cina vs Inaki Montes BUY Inaki Montes 78¢ $1 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 39d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 30¢ $1 49d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ $2 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY Yes $1 50d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 51d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 51d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up $2 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records