Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x929d…7ee3 other 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,277 (+17%) realized +$2,075 · open +$202
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%36W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$862now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days+$261
14 days+$731
30 days+$1,570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$1,078
other 25% +$709
tech 11% +$345
sports 8% −$29
crypto 3% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.6% -26.4% 48% 36% -2.6%
≤30d 57 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 46% +3.8%
≤90d 59 +0.5% -9.0% 61% 47% +3.4%
all 59 +0.5% -9.0% 61% 47% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 47% +3.4%
10% -17.7% 36% -6.5%
15% -25.7% 31% -15.5%
20% -33.0% 20% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$41 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$862
Realized+$2,075
Unrealized+$202
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses36 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions15
Markets (closed)59 / 74
History coverage57d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 54¢ 96¢ $378 $671 +$293 (+77%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $59 $30 −$30 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $80 $20 −$60 (-75%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-23%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 46¢ 95¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+106%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$28 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $136 +$47 +34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $69 −$5 -7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $125 −$102 -81%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 +$11 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 15 $22 −$3 -13%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $179 −$137 -77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 +$9 +5%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 14 $39 +$19 +49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $84 +$46 +56%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 13 $879 +$330 +38%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $68 −$38 -56%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $143 −$76 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $304 +$154 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$18 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $581 +$33 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 11 $216 +$63 +29%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 09 $642 +$282 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $120 +$69 +58%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $68 +$24 +36%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $49 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $1,655 +$78 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $9 +$14 +144%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 03 $81 −$72 -89%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $9 $0 +3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $238 +$194 +82%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $63 +$7 +11%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 31 $161 −$75 -47%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 30 $139 +$7 +5%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $33 +$5 +14%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $64 +$87 +136%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $222 +$27 +12%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $641 +$321 +50%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 29 $134 −$106 -79%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $3 +$5 +193%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 28 $248 +$202 +81%
World Championships: Canada vs. USA May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $63 −$63 -100%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 28 $182 +$91 +50%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $118 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 20m
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 28m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $25 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $6 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $16 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $31 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 12¢ $8 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 91¢ $18 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 9h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 90¢ $14 9h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 93¢ $9 9h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 94¢ $14 9h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 94¢ $5 9h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 95¢ $19 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 50¢ $11 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 50¢ $39 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 46¢ $21 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 46¢ $25 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 10h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $66 12h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL Yes 96¢ $96 12h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 83¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $861.51 · official $861.51 (match) · 949 history records