Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x929d…274e
politics · 31 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 1 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 23¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $66 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $16 +$11 +64%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 20 $23 −$19 -83%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 04 $8 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 27 $74 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% $0
world 25% +$1
other 16% +$12
sports 11% $0
tech 9% $0
culture 3% −$19
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $28 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $4 21h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $34 33h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $34 33h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $4 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $16 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $33 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $26 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $29 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 7d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 176d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 61¢ $16 197d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 204d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 245d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 245d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 96¢ $8 245d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 96¢ $17 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 30 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 7% -10.4%
10% -20.0% 3% -19.0%
15% -27.8% 3% -26.8%
20% -34.8% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records