Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x929c…fe32 sports 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,176 (-13%) realized −$21,742 · open +$3,566
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%43W / 84L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$996per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1,762est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$12,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,307
7 days−$2,496
14 days−$4,478
30 days−$7,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$18,062
other 13% −$2,444
world 5% +$3,130
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +10.2% -0.3% 33% 33% -24.5%
≤30d 35 -10.4% -19.0% 29% 29% -22.0%
≤90d 42 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 33% -20.6%
all 127 -5.3% -14.3% 34% 31% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 31% -25.1%
10% -22.5% 28% -32.2%
15% -30.0% 24% -38.8%
20% -36.8% 21% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,100) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$748 vs −$632 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$12,154
Realized−$21,742
Unrealized+$3,566
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses43 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,762
Open positions12
Markets (closed)127 / 141
History coverage226d
Avg bet$996
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 17¢ 70¢ $1,323 $5,348 +$4,025 (+304%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,514 $3,262 −$253 (-7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $888 $1,170 +$282 (+32%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,111 $1,032 −$79 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $777 $734 −$43 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $343 $313 −$30 (-9%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $212 $156 −$56 (-26%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $144 $108 −$36 (-25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 46¢ $243 $3 −$240 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $306 +$921 +301%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,603 +$2,698 +104%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2,741 −$2,678 -98%
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $439 −$427 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,443 −$1,410 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,216 −$94 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,791 −$1,752 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $176 +$392 +223%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,147 −$377 -33%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $642 −$630 -98%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals Jun 14 $454 −$274 -60%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $79 −$77 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $79 +$399 +506%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,341 +$772 +58%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $833 +$98 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,446 −$825 -57%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $114 −$17 -15%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,164 −$494 -42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6,815 −$587 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 04 $113 −$111 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $50 −$39 -78%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,214 −$356 -29%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $2,039 +$2,890 +142%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $4,164 −$2,434 -58%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $12 −$12 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $2,629 +$386 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $193 −$37 -19%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2,845 −$1,005 -35%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5,749 −$5,631 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,972 +$1,432 +48%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $4,441 +$2,167 +49%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $2,389 +$155 +6%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $515 +$653 +127%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2,408 +$2,365 +98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $498 −$487 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $3,280 −$1,605 -49%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $4,385 −$2,151 -49%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $2,500 +$598 +24%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $800 +$625 +78%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $1,636 −$1,636 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $240 −$133 -56%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $812 −$19 -2%
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5 Jan 19 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 19 $3,250 +$912 +28%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $2,743 +$2,416 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 59¢ $456 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 71¢ $163 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 75¢ $63 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 68¢ $85 7m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 74¢ $124 7m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 76¢ $170 8m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 82¢ $326 8m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 63¢ $332 10m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 56¢ $393 12m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 15¢ $23 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $103 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $34 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $23 19m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $11 21m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 28m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $48 34m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $114 36m
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $920 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $79 41m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $252 46m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $795 46m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $134 52m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $455 57m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 54¢ $11 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $110 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 46¢ $11 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 42¢ $22 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 40¢ $22 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 44¢ $22 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 43¢ $78 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,153.96 · official $12,153.96 (match) · 1392 history records