Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x929a…5ab4
other · 435 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$355 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$268 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$591
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses181 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions55
Markets (closed)414 / 435
History coverage74d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 55 History 414 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$296
14 days−$159
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 66¢ 63¢ $153 $146 −$8 (-5%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 50¢ 70¢ $63 $88 +$25 (+40%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Yes 45¢ 74¢ $46 $76 +$30 (+66%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $64 $76 +$12 (+18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 34¢ 71¢ $34 $71 +$37 (+109%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 67¢ 56¢ $65 $54 −$11 (-16%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 54¢ 35¢ $60 $38 −$21 (-36%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 57¢ 28¢ $56 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 31¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+203%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+52%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $51 −$6 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $579 +$39 +7%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Syria leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $237 +$11 +5%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 12 $100 −$4 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $301 +$27 +9%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $130 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $87 −$8 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $117 +$55 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $343 +$1 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $77 −$70 -90%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $65 −$39 -60%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $15 −$7 -48%
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $68 −$31 -46%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $891 +$18 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $60 +$5 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $47 −$5 -10%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $148 −$41 -28%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $354 +$24 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -24%
Will Slingshot launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $34 −$4 -10%
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $59 −$7 -13%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 −$2 -20%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $23 +$3 +13%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 09 $130 −$39 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $214 −$28 -13%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 09 $279 +$10 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $103 −$87 -84%
Bahrain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $263 −$94 -36%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 09 $25 +$7 +29%
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Charlotte Keitel Jun 09 $101 +$3 +2%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 09 $71 −$41 -57%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 09 $300 −$41 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% −$256
politics 31% +$70
other 24% −$53
sports 4% −$5
finance 1% −$15
tech 1% +$5
crypto 1% −$6
culture 0% $0
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 63¢ $6 21m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 59¢ $15 23m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 25m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $7 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 74¢ $16 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $16 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 74¢ $8 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 92¢ $8 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $7 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $16 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $38 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $39 14h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 14h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 56¢ $3 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $56 15h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 15h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 15h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 15h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 56¢ $3 15h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 15h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 54¢ $3 15h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 80¢ $96 15h
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 96¢ $45 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +22.4% +10.8% 38% 16% -12.9%
≤30d 116 +10.3% -0.2% 40% 18% -11.3%
≤90d 414 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 28% -10.9%
all 414 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 28% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 28% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 21% -19.5%
15% -29.4% 14% -27.2%
20% -36.3% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.95 · official $590.82 (match) · 1650 history records