Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9297…358b other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized +$60 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$70
world 7% −$2
crypto 4% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 1 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 1 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 1 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$740
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $241 $184 −$57 (-24%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 43¢ 81¢ $72 $137 +$65 (+90%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $85 $112 +$27 (+32%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $134 $86 −$48 (-36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $21 $36 +$15 (+69%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 37¢ 64¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+74%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? No 84¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 27¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 29 $330 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 34m
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $11 2h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $1 2h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $9 2h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $0 3h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $0 3h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $0 3h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 64¢ $1 4h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 13h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $2 16h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $2 18h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $0 19h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $0 21h
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 97¢ $272 22h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 65¢ $2 23h
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 24h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $50 27h
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 98¢ $51 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 39h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 45h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $739.59 · official $739.75 (match) · 106 history records