Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9296…ffbc weather 314 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$375 (-0%) realized −$377 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%299W / 6L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$197
14 days−$104
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$417
crypto 1% +$1
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -2.2% -11.5% 93% 2% -10.5%
≤30d 169 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 305 -0.6% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.9%
all 305 -0.6% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$143 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$3,490
Realized−$377
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses299 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)305 / 314
History coverage50d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $933 $934 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $640 $640 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $546 $548 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $443 $442 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $253 $254 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $205 $205 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $155 $155 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,661 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $114 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $508 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $275 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $517 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $753 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $397 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $280 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $266 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1,450 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $304 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $700 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $360 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $285 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $382 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1,086 −$205 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $350 −$52 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,375 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $415 +$71 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1,718 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,192 +$47 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $213 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $443 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $33 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $205 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $123 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $253 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $934 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $546 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $640 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $240 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $71 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 BUY Yes 100¢ $517 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $335 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,661 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $675 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $75 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $114 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $275 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $500 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $90 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $500 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $397 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $280 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $266 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $57 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,489.69 · official $3,489.69 (match) · 853 history records