Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x9291…265c other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$348 (+24%) realized +$230 · open +$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$118
sports 22% +$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +53.9%
≤90d 1 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +53.9%
all 1 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.9% 100% +53.9%
10% +39.2% 100% +39.2%
15% +25.7% 100% +25.7%
20% +13.4% 100% +13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$229 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,238
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage25d
Avg bet$489
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $627 $741 +$115 (+18%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $493 $497 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $327 +$229 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $498 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $86 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $554 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $557 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $177 23d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $109 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,238.03 · official $1,230.78 (match) · 30 history records