Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x9290…9104
other · 57 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$113 -43%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$99 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage30d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 5 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$26
14 days−$134
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? No 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 1? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +181%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$4 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 1? May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 +$6 +562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 +$59 +565%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30? May 29 $22 −$21 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 28 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 25 $3 −$1 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$3
crypto 40% −$67
weather 12% −$25
sports 5% −$14
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 7¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 35h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 35h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -59.2% -63.1% 9% 9% -57.6%
≤30d 52 -43.3% -48.7% 12% 12% -46.4%
≤90d 52 -43.3% -48.7% 12% 12% -46.4%
all 52 -43.3% -48.7% 12% 12% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 12% -46.4%
10% -53.6% 12% -51.5%
15% -58.1% 12% -56.2%
20% -62.2% 12% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.39 · official $3.39 (match) · 136 history records