Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x928f…0eb2 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1
politics 17% −$1
crypto 14% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 70% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 70% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage443d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $72 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 −$2 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $1 $0 +15%
Will Trump 10% blanket tariff go into effect by Saturday? Apr 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 3? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 03 $3 −$1 -27%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $44 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $39 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $18 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $14 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $32 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $6 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.77 · official $44.77 (match) · 95 history records