Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x928f…b619 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,243 (+69%) realized +$1,299 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,143
14 days+$1,048
30 days+$1,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$1,226
other 38% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+63.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +134.0% +111.7% 100% 100% +105.4%
≤30d 7 +80.6% +63.4% 71% 71% +90.2%
≤90d 7 +80.6% +63.4% 71% 71% +90.2%
all 7 +80.6% +63.4% 71% 71% +90.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +63.4% 71% +90.2%
10% +47.8% 71% +72.0%
15% +33.5% 71% +55.4%
20% +20.4% 71% +40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$51 · ×5.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.13 per $1 lost it wins $13.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$614
Realized+$1,299
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $670 $614 −$56 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$352 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $448 +$497 +111%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $249 +$295 +119%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 08 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 08 $54 −$53 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$6 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $108 +$178 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $687 1h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $145 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $204 4d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $303 5d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $249 6d
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Knicks 29¢ $49 10d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $45 10d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $9 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $3 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $108 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.27 · official $614.27 (match) · 15 history records