Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x928e…02ce crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (189 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$11 (-3%) realized +$1 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate60%36W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day189.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (189 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -1.5% -10.9% 60% 45% -13.6%
≤30d 60 -1.5% -10.9% 60% 45% -13.6%
≤90d 60 -1.5% -10.9% 60% 45% -13.6%
all 60 -1.5% -10.9% 60% 45% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover189.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 45% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 8% -21.8%
15% -27.2% 5% -29.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses36 / 24
Open positions23
Markets (closed)60 / 83
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day189.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 66¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 66¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 67¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 85¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 85¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 86¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 43¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+132%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 87¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 46¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.06 · official $81.06 (match) · 249 history records