Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x928e…b5de sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 67% +10.2%
≤30d 3 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 67% +10.2%
≤90d 3 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 67% +10.2%
all 3 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 67% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 67% +10.2%
10% +7.7% 67% -0.3%
15% -2.7% 33% -10.0%
20% -12.2% 33% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $3 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $2 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records