Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x928e…8ccc crypto 452 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,705 (+25%) realized +$1,722 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%147W / 302L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day114.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$293
14 days−$238
30 days+$1,318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,325
weather 0% −$17
sports 0% −$5
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -58.2% -62.2% 11% 11% -68.9%
≤30d 449 +8.9% -1.5% 33% 29% +6.4%
≤90d 449 +8.9% -1.5% 33% 29% +6.4%
all 449 +8.9% -1.5% 33% 29% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 29% +6.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 24% -3.8%
15% -19.5% 21% -13.1%
20% -27.4% 20% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$11 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,722
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses147 / 302
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)449 / 452
History coverage20d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day114.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $71 +$10 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $182 −$134 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$6 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $22 +$13 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 01 $12 +$189 +1645%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$15 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $38 +$32 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$17 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 2687 history records