Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x928c…331e sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,197 (+20%) realized +$896 · open +$301
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 45L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$364
7 days+$479
14 days+$168
30 days−$1,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,230
other 34% −$167
crypto 16% +$91
politics 1% +$26
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +105.0% +85.5% 38% 38% +46.0%
≤30d 61 +26.5% +14.4% 26% 26% -40.2%
≤90d 61 +26.5% +14.4% 26% 26% -40.2%
all 68 +41.1% +27.7% 34% 34% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.7% 34% +6.4%
10% +15.5% 34% -3.7%
15% +4.3% 32% -13.0%
20% -5.9% 31% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$65 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,226
Realized+$896
Unrealized+$301
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 45
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions8
Markets (closed)68 / 77
History coverage240d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $702 $1,009 +$307 (+44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $101 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 36¢ 36¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $36 +$127 +354%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 +$81 +414%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $39 +$161 +414%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $27 +$173 +650%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $54 +$53 +98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $59 −$57 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 +$36 +250%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $29 +$121 +414%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $59 +$130 +222%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $39 +$171 +442%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$170 +238%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $85 −$84 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$114 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $219 −$216 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $18 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 1h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 36¢ $18 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $10 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $10 11h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 2¢ $1 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 21h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,226.12 · official $1,226.12 (match) · 159 history records