Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9280…8e0f crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$429 (-15%) realized −$428 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$431
other 7% +$9
world 1% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.8% -0.7% 100% 0% -0.7%
≤30d 1 +9.8% -0.7% 100% 0% -0.7%
≤90d 1 +9.8% -0.7% 100% 0% -0.7%
all 40 -30.1% -36.8% 52% 15% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 15% -23.5%
10% -42.8% 10% -30.9%
15% -48.4% 8% -37.5%
20% -53.4% 2% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$34 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$428
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage150d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Feb 18 $2 −$1 -84%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 18 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 18 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Feb 18 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5AM ET Feb 18 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12? Feb 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 11 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 11 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8? Feb 08 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 30 Feb 03 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1? Feb 03 $125 +$22 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29? Jan 28 $332 −$332 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $163 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $176 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 28 $318 +$24 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $109 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1? Jan 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25? Jan 26 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25? Jan 26 $121 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 24 $4 +$1 +25%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 21 $35 +$23 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 20 Jan 20 $14 +$6 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $110 1h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 105d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 119d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 119d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 119d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 119d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $6 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $88 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $102 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $71 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $147 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $111 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $100 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.24 · official $109.24 (match) · 107 history records