Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x927f…e7e7 crypto 462 markets active 23h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (173 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,853 (+7%) realized +$8,852 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%300W / 347L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day173.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$3,240
politics 6% +$564
sports 2% +$556
other 1% +$211
tech 1% −$72
world 0% +$94
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (173 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 380 -44.1% -49.4% 38% 31% -30.3%
≤30d 647 -27.8% -34.7% 46% 37% -19.9%
≤90d 647 -27.8% -34.7% 46% 37% -19.9%
all 647 -27.8% -34.7% 46% 37% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.7% 37% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.0% 23% -27.6%
15% -46.7% 13% -34.6%
20% -51.9% 9% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$97 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$8,852
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses300 / 347
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)647 / 462
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$257
Trades / day173.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 267 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $13 −$195 -1449%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Te Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Evan Bouchard win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in April? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during T Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bernie say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" in Maine? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during N Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Trump say "Peanut" during events in Rockland County? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $422 −$422 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 3+ times in Michigan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner eve Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during King Charles visit? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $106 −$77 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $83 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $41 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $55 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $57 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.50 · official $22.50 (match) · 3500 history records